Sub Seasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Forecast (Experimental)
  • This website was developed by PAGASA in collaboration with the Japan Meteorological Agency/Tokyo Climate Centre (JMA/TCC), the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Regional Climate Centre in RA II (Asia). This one-month (running 10-day) probabilistic forecast product is being produced and updated every Thursday by PAGASA;

  • This product is based on the output of one-month numerical prediction from Global Prediction Center for Long-range Forecast (GPC) Tokyo and the details of its prediction system are available here: ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/outline/index.html

  • This sub-seasonal forecast (10-day forecast, but usually weekly or pentad) could provide advance notice of potential hazards related to climate, weather and hydrological events across the country that will eventually support various economic sectors (agriculture, water resource management and others).

Probabilistic Forecast Map

The Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecast

Subseasonal predictions contribute to fill the gap between weather and seasonal time scales.

Objectives:

  • Improve forecast skill and understanding on the subseasonal to seasonal timescale with special emphasis on high-impact weather events.

  • Promote the initiative’s uptake by operational centers and exploitation by the applications community.

  • Capitalize on the expertise of the weather and climate research communities to address issues of importance to the Global Framework for Climate Services.



Initial Condition: January 14, 2021
Week Validity: January 14-20, 2021


Increase of rainfall of up to 60mm is expected in northern and eastern Luzon and southern Mindanao while up to 100mm in Bicol Region and most parts of Visayas.

High probability of rainfall to exceed 25mm in Apayao, Cagayan, Isabela, Southern Luzon and most parts of Visayas and Mindanao during the forecast period.

High probability of rainfall to exceed 50mm in Apayao, Cagayan, Isabela, Southern Luzon and most parts of Visayas and Mindanao during the forecast period.



Less probability of rainfall to exceed 100mm in most parts of the country except in Bicol Region, Eastern Samar and Masbate where there is 70-95% probability during the forecast period.

Less probability of rainfall to exceed 150mm in most parts of the country during the forecast period.

Less probability of rainfall to exceed 200mm in most parts of the country during the forecast period.

Initial Condition: Less probability of rainfall to exceed 200mm in most parts of the country during the forecast period.
Week Validity: January 14-20, 2021


Cooler than average surface than average surface air temperature is expected in Northern & Central Luzon. Southern Luzon. And southern while the rest of the country will likely experience average to slightly warmer than average surface air temperature.

Initial Condition: January 14, 2021
Week Validity: January 14-20, 2021


Upper and low level Divergence suggest likelihood of precipitation in most parts of the. Northeast Monsoon affecting most parts of Luzon while Easterlies affecting eastern sections of Visayas and Mindanao during the forecast period.

Initial Condition: January 14, 2021
Week Validity: January 21-27, 2021


Increase of rainfall of up to 60mm is expected in northeastern Luzon and Panay Island while rainfall deficit of up to 40mm in northern Mindanao during the forecast period.

High probability of rainfall to exceed 25mm in most parts of the country except in Ilocos Region & Central Luzon during the forecast period.

60-95% probability of rainfall to exceed 50mm in Apayao, Cagayan, Isabela, southern Palawan, Bicol Region, eastern and western Visayas and northern & eastern parts Mindanao during the forecast period.



Less probability of rainfall to exceed 100mm in most parts of the country during the forecast period.

Less probability of rainfall to exceed 150mm in most parts of the country during the forecast period.

Less probability of rainfall to exceed 200mm in most parts of the country during the forecast period.

Initial Condition: January 14, 2021
Week Validity: January 21-27, 2021


Slightly warmer to warmer than average surface air temperature is expected in eastern & Southern Luzon while average to slight warmer than average in most parts of Visayas and Mindanao.

Initial Condition: January 14, 2021
Week Validity: January 21-27, 2021


Upper and low level Divergence suggest likelihood of precipitation in most parts of CAR, Ilocos region, Nueva Ecija, Bulacan, Cavite, Laguna, Batangas, and most parts of Visayas and Mindanao. Northeast Monsoon affecting most parts of Extreme Northern and Northern Luzon while Easterlies affecting Visayas and Mindanao during the forecast period.



CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: January 03, 2020
Week Validity: January 4-10, 2021

GCM
PCA
CCA

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon, Masbate and Eastern Visayas while the rest of the country will likely received above normal rainfall.

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon, Masbate and Eastern Visayas while the rest of the country will likely received above normal rainfall.

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country is expected except in some areas in CAR, La Union & Ilocos Sur where above normal rainfall is more likely.


CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2 (Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: January 03, 2020
Week Validity: Jan 11-17, 2021

GCM
PCA
CCA

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon, Masbate and eastern parts of Visayas while the rest of the country will likely received above normal rainfall.

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country is expected.

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country is expected.


CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2(Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: January 03, 2020
Week Validity: Jan 18-31, 2020

GCM
PCA
CCA

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon, Masbate and Eastern Visayas while the rest of the country will likely received above normal rainfall.

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon, Masbate and Eastern Visayas while the rest of the country will likely received above normal rainfall.

Probability of receiving above normal rainfall in most parts of the country is expected.


CPT based Sub-Seasonal Forecasting (Philippines)

CPT is using NCEP CFSv2(Climate Forecast Systems V.2) forecasts.

NOAA's CPC International Desks

The legend is interpreted as, probability of below average for the brown shaded color and probability of above-average for green shaded color.

Initial Condition: January 03, 2020
Week Validity: Jan 4-12-, 2021

GCM
PCA
CCA

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of Luzon, Masbate and Eastern Visayas while the rest of the country will likely received above normal rainfall.

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country is expected except in some areas in CAR, La Union & Ilocos Sur where above normal rainfall is more likely.

Probability of receiving below normal rainfall in most parts of the country is expected except in some areas in CAR, La Union & Ilocos Sur where above normal rainfall is more likely.

 
Prepared by:
CAD - CLIMPS
For inquiries, please contact
Ms. Ana Liza Solis
Chief, Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section (CLIMPS)
(02)8284-0800 Loc. 906