TC-Threat Potential Forecast

PAGASA TC Threat Potential Forecast(TTPF) was formulated in order to detect/evaluate likelihood of TC formation within the Philippine Area of Responsibility and the possibility forecast in track and direction for the next 2-weeks. TTPF was based on the output of CWB TC Tracker (Tsai et al. 2011). A tool utilized to objectively detect probability of TC formation in the global numerical weather prediction models.

This product was part of the collaboration between PAGASA and CWB through the MECO/TECCO VOTE Project.

Disclaimer: The information contained herein are based on the 6-hourly forecasts of the NCEP-GEFS issued in the past 24hrs where the CWB TC Tracking algorithm was applied and on some climate indicators that are known to affect TC formation and development. This is for guidance purposes only. Users requiring more specific information related to TC forecasts are advised to use the bulletins being used by PAGASA once the TC is already developed and observed inside the Philippine Area of Responsibility(PAR).

For your questions and queries please contact us: Tel: (02)8248-0800 loc. 906 (CLIMPS-CAD) or email: Tel: (02)8248-0800 loc. 805 (Weather Forecasting Section)

Date : January 21, 2021 - February 03, 2021

Link to GEFS S2S Rainfall Exceedance Probability: